🔗 Share this article Can Scotland at last end the All Blacks hoodoo? New Zealand introduced several modifications to the team that beat Ireland Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand Where: Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh Date: Saturday, 8 November Kick-off: 15:10 GMT Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland. Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match. A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride." Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent. Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest. Recent History Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes. In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses. Team News In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail. Via their excellence, their power, game management, they get the job done. We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history. Key Absences Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback. Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern. During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations. Squad Depth Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years. And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class. Coaching Choices Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power. The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23. Past Encounters Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the narrow loss to the All Blacks in the previous encounter Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick. Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, set-piece issues. By the Numbers Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime. They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps. Required Performance Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points. The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there. In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks. Conclusion Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost. With perfect execution? Explosive start. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham. Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.